tonygoodson

Cluetrain – No 69 Maybe You’re Impressing Your Investors

69.  Maybe you’re impressing your investors.  Maybe you’re impressing Wall Street. You’re not impressing us. (The Cluetrain 95 Theses - No69)

This is my blog entry for Cluetrain Thesis #69 for the Cluetrainplus10 commemoration of the 10th anniversary of The Cluetrain Manifesto.

In 2001, William Pilder sent me an email suggesting I might like this Cluetrain book thing.  I loved it.  Loved the 95 Theses, they spoke to me.  The book spoke to me.  I started following the guys.  Chris Locke, Doc Searls, David Weinberger (and who is Rick Levine!!)

I picked up this “weblog”/”blog” word on the Cluetrain email discussion list which ran on Topica.  What the hell was a blog?  Ahh, got it.  I’ve blogged ever since 2001.

So No 69.  10 years on.  Erm you did try to impress your investors.  You did try to impress Wall Street, and you almost succeeded, but it all came crashing down.  And not only did you not impress us, you took our money, and crashed your company, and your economy and the world economy.  Nice one. Thanks a lot.

But come on, why would you behave any differently?  Because it worked and you could get away with it.  Very few players came into your markets over the last 10 years, using Cluetrain principles, to give your arse a good kicking.  That’s been really disappointing.  The last 10 years has largely has been business as usual.  In fact you’ve often dressed up business as usual, as something different using this Internet thing, and you’ve mostly got away with it. 

We overestimate in the short term, and underestimate in the long term.  - Paul Saffo

I got that quote from Doc Searls, quoting Paul Saffo.  That’s what’s stuck with me the most in the last 10 years of Cluetrain. It hasn’t come true yet, but it will, and we probably won’t recognise it when it has changed, because it was always that way wasn’t it?  Some things have moved a lot over the last decade.  Think Apple.  Think Google (and YouTube).  Think Bandwidth.  Think online business and banking. Think mobile handsets and mobile computing.  The technology has moved rapidly, but that “conversation” still has a way to go.

I predicted the demise of Sun Microsystems.  I predicted the demise of Apple.  I predicted the demise of Google.  I’m not doing well with my predictions….yet.  Well once you’re a public company, you have to impress your investors, and you have to impress Wall Street, so by logic, you’re not impressing us!!  When you have to make quarterly and weekly and daily reports for your investors and Wall Street, it doesn’t bode well for the long term, if you follow and believe in Cluetrain No 69.

Great companies that survive the decades and centuries put their employees first, and I don’t mean the guys at the top. In the long term, how you treat your employees, is a reflection of how you treat your clients and customers, which in turn will impress Wall Street, or not.  We mostly try to impress Wall Street first until the money runs out.

It’s going to be very difficult to let go of this Wall Street dependency.  It’s worked reasonably well for centuries, but some of us believe there has to be a better way.  Yes, reward innovation and entrepreneurship.  Yes, find ways to seek large capital investment, yes reward stakeholders.  Aren’t we ready for a new way to build community and businesses?  I don’t have the answers, but In the short term we overestimate and in the long term we underestimate.

And finally, my favourite part of the Cluetrain book is near the end.

The Cluetrain Hit-One-Outta-the-Park Twelve-Step Program for Internet Business Success (p170)

1. Relax
2. Have a sense of humour.
3. Find your voice and use it.
4. Tell the truth.
5. Don’t panic.
6. Enjoy yourself.
7. Be brave.
8. Be curious.
9. Play More.
10. Dream Always.
11. Listen Up.
12. Rap On.

Cascade of Mis-information

Two of my all time hero scientists died a few days ago.  I'm devastated and distraught.  They didn't both die at the same time, it's just that I realised they both died recently.  On finding out that Mark Purdey had died, I immediately looked up John Gofman's bio.  Shit, I killed him!  He died 2 months ago, on Napoleon's birthday.  How did I know?  Because yesterday I was listening to the Napoleon 101 Podcast recorded on Napoleon's birthday, and my jaw dropped when I noticed that John Gofman died on the same day as the podcast was recorded.  Not only that, but I declare 15th August as the spookiest date in my life.  Why?  My first wife's birthday is 13th August.  The current Mrs Goodson's birthday is 14th August!  So what does that say about the 15th August!!

Mark Purdey was a UK farmer who fought the UK Ministry of Agriculture and then the scientific establishment to try to prove that BSE(Mad Cows Disease) is not a disease passed on through sheep or bovine feed, but a chemical imbalance either set off by organophosphates, or an environmental chemical imbalance.  In the case of BSE or CJD, it's a high manganese/ low copper footprint.  What's even more fascinating is that Mark Purdey also suggested that other neurodegenerative diseases may also have a mineral imbalance footprint.  Alzheimer's and Parkinson's.  In the case of Alzheimer's, it a high aluminum and low zinc, I think.  Has this brilliant and radical hypothesis died with Mark Purdey.  Was he zapped?  Ironically, he died from a brain tumor.

John Gofman was a genius scientist, combining several skills and talent, to make significant breakthroughs in 4 areas of science.

1. As a young scientist he was one of a small group to manufacture weapons grade plutonium for the Manhattan Project.  He still has (had!!) patents for it.

2. He made some of the first links between low grade nuclear radiation and the threat to our health.  In other words, previously, only direct Hiroshima type high level radiation was thought to be a threat, and not a bit of radiation wafting across a Utah desert after a test, or a few soldiers placed within miles of an explosion!!  We take this thinking for granted now, but John Gofman was one of the first to prove the threat.

3.  In the late 50s and early 60s, he showed causes of heart disease from cholesterol.

4.  And finally, his work on low grade radiation as a threat to our health, was his latter day work.  I believe his research and writings on the threat of medical X-Rays, is the single most important health issue of the last 50 years.  We don't know what causes plaque build up in arteries and hence heart disease.  Gofman has a radical suggestion, that medical X-Rays cause micro-lesions in arteries, which enable plaque build up.  Did you know that many of the scientist who hung around Chernobyl, to do the clean up and research after the melt down, died prematurely of heart related diseases and not cancer related diseases.  Makes you wonder.

How the hell did I get into all this death yesterday?  Well, I woke up in the middle of the night, couldn't sleep, so I read Scott Adams' (Dilbert) links to an article in the NY Times about "Cascades".  This is where the belief of one person influences another who influences another, and it then cascades.  Very dangerous in the scientific and medical community, because it leads to everyone believing the same thing, and nothing will shift them.

In this case it's fat in the diet, which has cascaded to become the norm, that fat is bad for us, or at least too much fat is.  But according to the article, this has never been proven!  It doesn't say what is bad for us in our diet, but from what I know, the only thing which has been scientifically proven is, too many calories are bad for us, not too many "bad" calories.

Well let me tell you, John Gofman and Mark Purdey are two the greatest for resisting the cascade.  I wont forget either of you. I hope both your legacies live on. 

Crude Awakening - The Oil is running out

I went to see Crude Awakening tonight, a film about our dependency on oil, and how quickly oil is running out, which will be in the next few decades.  Honestly.  It's not a scare thing or some green thing, and it's not about conserving oil, because that will prolong the pain for a just a bit longer.

There was a panel discussion afterwards with;

Elliot Fishman, Phil Hart, and Ken Davidson of The Age

The implications for me, fall into a number or micro and macro areas.

1. Wars will increase to protect the remaining oil

2. Economic decline as we use up the remaining oil but bury our heads in the sand

3. Local change.  Cars will be too expensive to drive, and plastics become too expensive to use.

4. Food will need to be transported locally

5. No more air travel!!

What can we do locally? 

Support public transport, especially more trains and more train infrastructure.  Campaign for a faster broadband infrastructure so less people have to travel to work.  Make more people aware of Peak Oil

I really am having a deep think about what car or cars to own, what investments to have, and what things are going to decline, and where the growth areas are.  Where to live relative to public transport and local schools.

The country with the greatest problem is America, which is totally oil and car dependent.  America will economically crash,unless they start to do something radical over the next 5 years. Ken pointed out that European cities have a public transport infrastructure built before the age of the car.  I wonder how China and India will be able to grow if they can't supply themselves with energy.

In the short term, the price of petrol will go up. What will this mean, over the next few years?  At what point does the cost of running a car cease to be viable?  When does the very high price of petrol begin to impact on the infrastructure and transport, as well as the local and world economy?

What's most interesting here in Australia, is what role coal is going to play in all of this.  The film didn't mention coal!!  it seems to me, that in the short-term, a vast increase in coal usage together with Five Ways to Save the World, is going to be the way forward!!

No More Oil

Coming Soon, a Crude ending.  The oil is running out.  Few seem to get it yet.  I'll say it again, The Oil is Running Out.  In 50 years time we will have no oil!!

You don't believe me?  Check out Peak Oil.  Check out this blog Phil Hart on things such as Peak Oil.  Check out this film, A Crude Awakening - The Oil Crash.

What will this mean?  Well, I think the problems will start well before the 50 years are up.  Petrol prices only have one way to go, and that's up up up.  What effect will this have on world economies?  Worse still, 6 of the top 10 Fortune 500 companies are Oil or Car Manufacturers.  What will they do to cling to power?

I reckon the real crap will occur over the next 20 years, until we realise that there really is going to be no more oil and change our world economy and the way we live, over to something else.  This isn't about conservation of oil, there isn't enough,  Even if we conserve, maybe we put the event off by a decade, if we'd been more frugal over the last century, then maybe we'd have an extra few decades of oil.  It's been nice whilst it lasted.

Now let's look long into the future and work backwards.  Here in Australia we have plenty of coal, uranium, and sun, but no water or oil!!  So you'd think it would make sense to start working out ways to convert the energy of coal, uranium, and sun into water and transport!!  And I don't mean nuclear powered cars!!  I mean how are we going to convert the energy of coal, uranium and sun, into how we power the batteries of our cars or some other energy medium, as well as desalinating our water or some other miracle.

And there are other fuel sources such as Ethanol, Hydrogen, and other Synthetic fuels.

I'm not too worried about what we end up with as our fuel source, just the turmoil we're going to go through before the dumb Western countries let go of the oil.  So a few things to consider;

1. Go Johnnie Go on the nuclear feasibility studies.  And make 'em quick!

2. What is the feasibility of converting coal or nuclear power into desalination plants?

3. When do we use the most energy?  When we switch on the air conditioning coz it's so hot.  So why not work on solar powered air conditioners!  Doh!!

4. Melbourne with it's electric powered tram and train system is looking good, but there will have to be a much better and longer term transport strategy with hugely more investment, and the same with the other cities in the world.

5. What will the demographics of countries look like with no oil powered cars, and especially no oil powered trucks to transport everything.  Do we start to look like Cuba, with everything apparently based on local communities?

6. How do we move away from a reliance on car manufacturing in the western economies and move to something else, or find an alternative way of powering cars pretty damn quick.  Australia would have to solve its water problem if it went for an ethanol solution, or swap uranium and coal for sugar!!

7. And finally, I think we have the current technology to be looking good in 50 years, with replacement energy for our transport needs, with one exception.....how do you power a jet airliner or a fighter plane without hydrocarbon fuel?  Will synthetic fuel, hydrogen, or something else be able to produce the same efficiency and safety of a current jet engine?

No Smiling Please, We're Australian!

You're not allowed to smile!  It's official...Australian Passport Renewal Application

"The photos must be taken with a neutral expression (not laughing or frowning) with your mouth closed" 

Same in the UK, but not the USA.  Is this a Commonwealth thing then, that you can't smile in your passport photo?  How long has this been going on for?  I'll bet you're allowed to smile in the Axis of Evil (or the Axis of Good!), just not in the Commonwealth!!  So in which countries can you smile, and where is smiling banned?

Ah, it looks like we stopped smiling in 2004, to combat terrorism!!

Fortune 500 Reality Check

Once in a while I get back in touch with reality by having a look at the Fortune 500 list.

What you find is what you think is big, is usually measured by what is loud. Microsoft, Apple, Google, and all the other tech companies.  Even the media fall for this one, because they report on future potential business growth which is more newsworthy than stark reality.

Go play with the Forbes Global 2000 list, and tell me if you can see a pattern.  Sort by Revenue.  Sort by Market Value.  And then sort by Profit!!  The Profit one will have you fall off your seat!  Those are the bastards that are ripping us off!!  The ones making all the profit!

Yep, the world is dominated by oil.  Cars feed off oil.  And banks finance all this stuff. 

I'd guess that anything that's a threat to the oil/cars/banking combination will be squashed, even if we as consumers or democracies want it a different way.  There's too much at stake to let go of all that money.

Just one problem....the oil is running out!!  See Peak Oil.

What's Wrong with English Football (and sport)

Fat, Lazy and Fading Fast, that's Sam Allardyce's view, the Bolton manager.  He thinks government action is needed, to step in to stop the decline in British sport. 

I'll give a different view of how to solve it.  Parents!!  The big difference between British and Australian sport, is that parents in Australia take their kids to play sport, and stay there to watch and encourage.  It's ingrained into the parent culture here to spend most of your school life driving kids to play sport, and watching them play sport.

In every field/park on every corner, there's a cricket net.  I can take the kids along to the permanent wire net and practice with them.  No elitism, first come first served.  I don't remember that in the UK.  I don't remember any parents being present when I played sport at school in the UK.  Maybe it's changed.  I doubt it.  Or I'll bet that most children don't have parents who take them to play sport and then stay, so it could be there are more parents now watching in the UK, because they're the only ones who encourage it.

In USA on my first visit in '92, I was struck by how there was a basketball court on every corner, with kids playing and playing.  Sporting excellence amongst peer groups.

So it's grass root parent thing, not a government elite coaching thing.  Where do you think the term Soccer Moms comes from?  Is there such a thing as Football Mums?      That's the key.

Flushed Away

Took Georgie (Aged 5) to see Flushed Away yesterday.  She liked it.  In fact she was the loudest laugh in the cinema.
A very good film.  But I fear this type of film is being flushed away.
It seems that DreamWorks who help produce and distribute the film, aren't going to work with Aardman (Wallace and Gromit etc) again - "creative differences".

What that seems to mean is American humour,  Big Success = Biggest Cash.

I was shocked to hear a few weeks ago, that making movies isn't about making great movies.
It's about making money.  Big Corp movie industry is an investment house sinking in Big Corp money of $100m+ and expecting to double the return.  Anything less is failure, regardless of if the film is any good.
You can have both.  Shrek3 was being previewed.  No doubt it will be very good, and a much better merchandising proposition than Flushed Away.

Flushed Away is based on quirky British Humour.  It's like EastEnders on speed. There are lots and lots of in-jokes, just on the genre, as well as other film references.  I feel proud to have spotted many of them.

As I've said, it's a very good film, and a must-buy DVD.  There's so much going on, it's worth several looks and the kids will play it again and again, without tiring of it.  It would be excellent as an iMax movie on a very big screen, because they take advantage of the 3D animation to produce sweeping scenes which are at times breathtaking.

So what next for Aardman if they need $100m but can only generate $150m return!!
Does that mean no more Wallace and Gromit full length features.
I'm prepared to buy the Wallace and Gromit boxers to keep them afloat!

A Dose of Tony Benn

I've been inspired by some left-wing rhetoric.  There's nothing like that old war-horse Tony Benn to get you going. You either love him or hate him.  I love him.  I've seen him talk many years ago.  He makes such sense if you listen.  Who wouldn't we want a welfare state, good health care, good free education, fair taxation.  Sounds like Cuba!!
There are no mainstream centre-left parties in the UK, Australia, or the USA.  They're all fighting for the centre-right ground.  I'm sick of the current political horizon, give us some choice.  It's so bad here in Australia, you'd prefer even Johnnie Howard to what Labour has to offer, or is frightened to offer.  Let's see what Kevin Rudd the new Labour leader has to offer.  Probably not much.

Why can't we have  centre-left policies.  Does that really have to bankrupt a country?  I don't get why spending the money on infrastructure instead of bombs is a dud economic policy.  Do bombs really have a better economic return?  I'd much rather see infrastructure, water, air, transport, telecomms, nationalised and run by the government.  By all means have private enterprise run on the infrastructure and sell services using the infrastructure, but some things are too big and risky for commercial enterprises to take on, and we the population suffer, and in some cases aren't able to compete with countries who centrally invest in say, the latest telecomm infrastructure.  It's not just a shareholder payback thing.

Anyway, have a listen to Tony Benn, and either be inspired or angered.

And if Tony Benn doesn't do it for you, then try a dose of Father Bob or Jason Calacanis.

Peak Oil - You Have Been Warned

I read an article last Sunday in the Sydney Sun-Herald (which I can't find online) about Peak Oil.
Scary.  Peak Oil is when the world hits maximum oil production before the oil reserves start to dwindle.
That point has either passed or is due to pass over the next 5 years.
Some predict this will lead us into 40 years of recession.
We can't bury our heads in the sand on this one.  It will happen, it's just a case of when.

Funny, but a few weeks ago, before I read the article, I was thinking "What if....."
What if I gave up the cars, the mobile phones, the second phone, the cable tv, the school fees, the location (to get lower rent), and led a more frugal life, shopping on foot round the corner, kids at school round the corner.  Not a back to the land life, but a big big cut down.  Low paid job, time with the kids.  And then I read the article which suggest that's where we're all heading that way anyway, a la Cuba, who had to  move to  a non-oil economy after the Soviet Union's collapse in '91.  It became a small scale local community economy.

I don't know enough about energy economics, but the first thing that occurred to me, is that as oil prices go up, doesn't it make it viable to drill other reserves of energy, including oil?  And of course the big one is where does that leave nuclear energy, especially as Australia sits on 40% of the world's known uranium supplies.  Ha!  I knew I moved here for a reason!  We'll become the new Middle East within a decade!!  Unless nuclear fusion (and not nuclear fission) saves the day.

The one thing I just can't give up is broadband!!  That would be my one luxury.
My car has been off the road for over two months, and but for one crisis last week when Annie's car broke down, I've not missed my car at all.  As long as we had cover for our one car breaking down, I'd happily move to having just one car.  I'm starting to detest the cost of keeping a second car on the road, and I like public transport and cycling, and yes, I really am beginning to think about the economy  and environment.