tonygoodson

No More Oil

Coming Soon, a Crude ending.  The oil is running out.  Few seem to get it yet.  I'll say it again, The Oil is Running Out.  In 50 years time we will have no oil!!

You don't believe me?  Check out Peak Oil.  Check out this blog Phil Hart on things such as Peak Oil.  Check out this film, A Crude Awakening - The Oil Crash.

What will this mean?  Well, I think the problems will start well before the 50 years are up.  Petrol prices only have one way to go, and that's up up up.  What effect will this have on world economies?  Worse still, 6 of the top 10 Fortune 500 companies are Oil or Car Manufacturers.  What will they do to cling to power?

I reckon the real crap will occur over the next 20 years, until we realise that there really is going to be no more oil and change our world economy and the way we live, over to something else.  This isn't about conservation of oil, there isn't enough,  Even if we conserve, maybe we put the event off by a decade, if we'd been more frugal over the last century, then maybe we'd have an extra few decades of oil.  It's been nice whilst it lasted.

Now let's look long into the future and work backwards.  Here in Australia we have plenty of coal, uranium, and sun, but no water or oil!!  So you'd think it would make sense to start working out ways to convert the energy of coal, uranium, and sun into water and transport!!  And I don't mean nuclear powered cars!!  I mean how are we going to convert the energy of coal, uranium and sun, into how we power the batteries of our cars or some other energy medium, as well as desalinating our water or some other miracle.

And there are other fuel sources such as Ethanol, Hydrogen, and other Synthetic fuels.

I'm not too worried about what we end up with as our fuel source, just the turmoil we're going to go through before the dumb Western countries let go of the oil.  So a few things to consider;

1. Go Johnnie Go on the nuclear feasibility studies.  And make 'em quick!

2. What is the feasibility of converting coal or nuclear power into desalination plants?

3. When do we use the most energy?  When we switch on the air conditioning coz it's so hot.  So why not work on solar powered air conditioners!  Doh!!

4. Melbourne with it's electric powered tram and train system is looking good, but there will have to be a much better and longer term transport strategy with hugely more investment, and the same with the other cities in the world.

5. What will the demographics of countries look like with no oil powered cars, and especially no oil powered trucks to transport everything.  Do we start to look like Cuba, with everything apparently based on local communities?

6. How do we move away from a reliance on car manufacturing in the western economies and move to something else, or find an alternative way of powering cars pretty damn quick.  Australia would have to solve its water problem if it went for an ethanol solution, or swap uranium and coal for sugar!!

7. And finally, I think we have the current technology to be looking good in 50 years, with replacement energy for our transport needs, with one exception.....how do you power a jet airliner or a fighter plane without hydrocarbon fuel?  Will synthetic fuel, hydrogen, or something else be able to produce the same efficiency and safety of a current jet engine?

We Have Change!

At the margins what separates one identical cafe from another?  Yesterday, feeling my post Landmark Advanced feeling, I thought I'd buy a Big Issue.  Went into the cafe to get some change (I guess I could have given the Big Issue guy $20!!),

"Sorry, we don't give change!"  So I walked out.  But in my post Landmark mind, I turned back and into the cafe again.  The guy wasn't there so I asked the person at the other till.  He gave me the change.  The other guy came back saw what was happening and admonished the guy who had given  me the change.  I explained to the first guy that I wanted the change to buy a copy of Big Issue.  It still didn't register with him.  I should have asked him why they don't give change.

Later on I realised that they should turn it on it's head.

WE GIVE CHANGE!

A big sign which distinguishes them from everyone else, and will probably lead to more business relative to the hassle of providing change.  They're right next to one of the busiest rail stations in Melbourne.  Massive passing traffic.  I've a good mind to back to the cafe and speak to the owner or manager about making it a key thing to offer change to people.  If people keep coming in demanding something, then isn't that an opportunity!

Funny, but Seth Godin is writing about exactly the same thing, We don't like you, go away.

Fortune 500 Reality Check

Once in a while I get back in touch with reality by having a look at the Fortune 500 list.

What you find is what you think is big, is usually measured by what is loud. Microsoft, Apple, Google, and all the other tech companies.  Even the media fall for this one, because they report on future potential business growth which is more newsworthy than stark reality.

Go play with the Forbes Global 2000 list, and tell me if you can see a pattern.  Sort by Revenue.  Sort by Market Value.  And then sort by Profit!!  The Profit one will have you fall off your seat!  Those are the bastards that are ripping us off!!  The ones making all the profit!

Yep, the world is dominated by oil.  Cars feed off oil.  And banks finance all this stuff. 

I'd guess that anything that's a threat to the oil/cars/banking combination will be squashed, even if we as consumers or democracies want it a different way.  There's too much at stake to let go of all that money.

Just one problem....the oil is running out!!  See Peak Oil.

The Good Guys

We went to buy a fridge today, and came away with a fridge!  Keep the Customer (wife!) Satisfied.

We went to The Good Guys on Nepean Highway in Brighton, Melbourne.  They seem to have the largest range of fridges to look at.  I say this, because I noticed that the Good Guy in the fridge area, seems to be running a business within a business, fighting for floor space!  And credit to him, because it's the only place we went to, good range, good prices, good service, bought today, deliver tomorrow, so they also carry stock as well.

Marginal Delight!

It costs companies too much to really delight customers.

So what they engage in is "Good Enough".  But what that engenders is lack of customer loyalty, because there's no good reason or goodwill to stay with them.

I've been flying Qantas a lot recently, for one reason and one reason only....my Airmiles.  So guess what I discovered yesterday?  My last few months of considerably flying with Qantas hasn't been recorded on my Airmiles, and I don't know if they're recoverable.  How has this happened?  My Qantas Airmiles card says "T Goodson"  my Qantas record says "Anthony Goodson", I've been booking flights as Tony Goodson, and the online system has willingly let me book the flights against my Qantas number.  Just one problem, it hasn't been recording my airmiles!!

So why should I be flying Qantas? They're good enough.  I've got no complaints, they do what they're supposed to, and just that.  Sometimes they even give out ice cream lollies after the meal!  But there's nothing else (unless you're Ralph Fiennes of course!!).  So anything annoying that happens becomes over-exaggerated for me, because Qantas haven't built up any goodwill with me.

The same with the hotels I've been staying in over the last few months.  They're all good enough.  However, what some organisations are doing, are playing in this Marginal Delight and goodwill by doing things for the absolute minimal to distinguish themselves.  This time around, in Adelaide, I refused to stay at the Stamford Plaza Adelaide, because they were taking the piss by trying to charge $250 for a night. So I thought I'd give the Holiday Inn a go to see what tricks they're up to.

When I say tricks, I mean their marginal tricks that work and delight.  And yes, I'd definitely stick to Holiday Inns, because they at least try to make an effort.  Room coffee mugs instead of miniature cups, almost real milk, and green translucent soap!!  Well no one else is doing it!!  That's how bad it's got, my next hotel stay will be for the bigger cups in the room, the milk, and the colour of the soap!!   

SheepWalking

Seth Godin writes about the phenomenon of SheepWalking

I define "sheepwalking" as the outcome of hiring people who have been raised to be obedient and giving them a braindead job and enough fear to keep them in line.

The corporates are largely stocked by people like this.  It's the norm, it's ok, you look along the street and you see all these people SheepWalking to work, and yet, if you're in a room with them, and you humanise them, you realise just how intelligent and warm people are.  So it's not their lack of intelligence, it's the system.  We crave security.

What I've been pondering recently, are Gen Y and Gen Z going to work at corporates, such as a bank. Decades ago, you loved to join a corporate because they had the latest technology to play with.  Word Processors, Fax Machines, email, computers, telex!!  And yet over the last decade we now have more up to date technology at home than at work.  When did this happen?  So what will a Gen Y or Gen Z make of a corporate work environment where they can't use Chat, Twitter, Wikis, Blog, SMS, Mobiles.  They won't have Vista, OSX, or Linux, you won't be able to use Office 2007 at work for a few years, and yet you can pick it up down the road, or probably use it in school.

So most of the knowledge tools you now use to communicate with colleagues and friends can't or won't be able to be used at BigCorp.  What is a new starter going to make of this backward step in technology.  Will they stay or will they go?  Will they fall in line like most of us did all those years ago, or will they walk away?  If they walk away then who is going to do the SheepWalking at work?

And having just come back from Perth and witnessing a SuperBoom in the economy there, it's set me wondering about if I want my kids to actually have a "University Education" get a degree and then go SheepWalking in a corporate.  I think I'd prefer them to learn "Tradey" jobs and then how to grow a business based on their technical knowledge and great service. 

My Dad used to say to me, "Become an accountant and the world's your oyster."  I think that's because maybe he'd wished he'd become an accountant.  I want to say to my son Jay, "Become a Plumber and the world's your Long Tail!"  Maybe that's because I'd like to be a plumber, but without the poo!!

The New Me for 2007

I'm really going for it in 2007.  Kicking out the old and refocusing.
Already lost a stone! 14lbs, that's 6 Kilos.  On the bike every day, which is now my primary form of transport, which going with the trend in Australia.
Working from home, but away from home, trying out some cafes with free Internet, so let's give them credit.  Elwood Lounge Glenhuntly Road, and Kat Baloo on Acland Street, St Kilda, and more to follow.

Business.  Focusing on Sales Training with people and companies I like.
Going after people who are interested in Getting Things Done.
Snog Frog Blog and Snog Frog Pod as my business expression.

And having a think about the trend of Rating and Ranking as a form of business. When you think about it with ever increasing written, audio, and video on the Internet, how the hell are you going to know what to read, listen, and watch.

SnogFrog Blog

As I promised myself, my new blog is up and running.
SnogFrog Blog.  My wife hates the name.  My friend hates the name.  My mother hates the name.
I love it. Gut feel.
It's about Kissing Frogs.  Selling with Passion.  Networking.  Getting Organised.

Snog is a an English term for kissing.  Kissing with passion.  Pashing.

I've set up the blog and soon the podcast (SnogFrog Pod!) to talk about selling.  Interview people.  See what happens.  See what works.
I'm going to try my hardest to not make it like most other things about selling, which fall into this dull  world of sales talk.  Actually the language isn't dull, just that it sounds like a war.  Territory, Plan, Close, Win, etc etc.  That's fine for 80% of you.  This if for the other 20% who don't feel satisfied with what's out there, and feel there's a different way to sell.
Maybe it's not even selling.

Anyway, let's not define it too much, let's just see what happens.

Flushed Away

Took Georgie (Aged 5) to see Flushed Away yesterday.  She liked it.  In fact she was the loudest laugh in the cinema.
A very good film.  But I fear this type of film is being flushed away.
It seems that DreamWorks who help produce and distribute the film, aren't going to work with Aardman (Wallace and Gromit etc) again - "creative differences".

What that seems to mean is American humour,  Big Success = Biggest Cash.

I was shocked to hear a few weeks ago, that making movies isn't about making great movies.
It's about making money.  Big Corp movie industry is an investment house sinking in Big Corp money of $100m+ and expecting to double the return.  Anything less is failure, regardless of if the film is any good.
You can have both.  Shrek3 was being previewed.  No doubt it will be very good, and a much better merchandising proposition than Flushed Away.

Flushed Away is based on quirky British Humour.  It's like EastEnders on speed. There are lots and lots of in-jokes, just on the genre, as well as other film references.  I feel proud to have spotted many of them.

As I've said, it's a very good film, and a must-buy DVD.  There's so much going on, it's worth several looks and the kids will play it again and again, without tiring of it.  It would be excellent as an iMax movie on a very big screen, because they take advantage of the 3D animation to produce sweeping scenes which are at times breathtaking.

So what next for Aardman if they need $100m but can only generate $150m return!!
Does that mean no more Wallace and Gromit full length features.
I'm prepared to buy the Wallace and Gromit boxers to keep them afloat!

Reputation and Ranking

Someone asked me recently what I thought would the next big thing on the Internet.
I reckon it's Reputation and Ranking.   This is the big one that will grow and grow.
It's not something new, in fact it's the foundation of the web.

Finding information?  Pah.  What you want is the information you're looking for to be highly ranked on the first page.   Hence the success of Google with it's uncanny knack of finding what you're looking for.  We take that for granted nowadays and forget how it was 6+ years ago.

And I think most of the big successes are based on Reputation and Ranking.
Amazon is as much about how books are rated, and who else is reading the book, as a place to buy a book.
eBay is as much about the reputation of someone who is buying or selling, as it is about getting the absolute lowest price.

YouTube is about finding the most viewed and highly ranked stuff.

HotorNot - It's a ranking site! One of the original ranking sites.
And take a look at where things are going now.  What about this one where the community is ranking
"The Prettiest Image in the World"  as well as "The Funniest Image in the World"!

And what about this, Rate My Teacher.  Yep, students and parent are anonymously rating and ranking the teachers.

It's not going to stop, it's going to grow.  There's a lot of opportunity in spotting and setting up a website that gathers momentum on the community scoring and rating things. Yes, there will be maliciousness, but like Wikipedia it will probably even itself out.

But think about it.  Isn't this what the Internet, and certainly the Web is about?  Linking everyone, information that is categorised and ordered.  If I listen to this and this and this, then I want to know about that.  If I like this and this, then recommend that.  That's what Amazon does uncannily. I'm not too interested in an individual's view on something, it's too subjective and open to bias, but a group view or large sample is likely to be more accurate.

So I think this is definitely the biggest growth area on the Internet.  What's the Best Music, Best Employer, Best Employee, Best Date (I mean is the photo and description accurate based on meeting them, and not the other things you're thinking!).

Just one worry.  There are some things I hate, which other people love.  There are some things I should love, given all the other things I love.  So I need to have the following taken into account for my exclusion list!

U2
Lindsay Lohan
iPods
Princess Diana
Grand Prix racing
Worship of Coffee
SMS/Texting
Any picture with a cute cat in it
Anything involving horses
Fishing
Rap Music or any speaking along to music
Podcasts which spend more of the time talking about podcasting than anything else
Jogging
Health and Fitness clubs, and the people in them
Badly spelled first names or naming children after inanimate objects
Celebrities and their opinions on things