tonygoodson

Petrol problems about peak oil, not snake oil

Petrol problems about peak oil, not snake oil - Opinion - theage.com.au

Ah Ha!  Ken Davidson, who spoke on a panel at the showing of A Crude Awakening last week, has a piece in The Age today, summarising many of the things he said last week, and pointing out the folly of building a large infrastructure toll road under public-private partnership.

Actually, I love new big roads, speaking as a driver!  But I can see the problems in the long run, if this isn't part of a long term strategy, to recognise we're running out of oil, and in the medium term petrol will be very very expensive. 

At least we're all starting to talk about it.

Australia left for dead, says net guru - Wireless & BroadBand - Connectivity

Australia left for dead, says net guru - Wireless & BroadBand - Connectivity

I am concerned about Australia," Professor Smarr told the Herald yesterday from his home in San Diego. "We are in a once-in-30-year transition, and if you are not serious about real broadband you will be gradually left out of more and more of the emerging business opportunities, and challenged for the ones you thought you had. Australia is great in terms of the old infrastructure ... so you think of yourselves as a modern country", but on internet infrastructure, "Australia ranks 42nd in the world in the cost of internet service, 38th in mobile phone costs, 40th on the availability of skilled labour and engineers, and 20th on scientific infrastructure. If you want your living standard to remain ... one of the best in the world, it's going to have to be by adding value in a globally interconnected economy.

Just as we've all suspected.  What I really like is we're 38th in mobile phone costs, and we have to start by adding value!!  Are you listening Government and Telstra?

Crude Awakening - The Oil is running out

I went to see Crude Awakening tonight, a film about our dependency on oil, and how quickly oil is running out, which will be in the next few decades.  Honestly.  It's not a scare thing or some green thing, and it's not about conserving oil, because that will prolong the pain for a just a bit longer.

There was a panel discussion afterwards with;

Elliot Fishman, Phil Hart, and Ken Davidson of The Age

The implications for me, fall into a number or micro and macro areas.

1. Wars will increase to protect the remaining oil

2. Economic decline as we use up the remaining oil but bury our heads in the sand

3. Local change.  Cars will be too expensive to drive, and plastics become too expensive to use.

4. Food will need to be transported locally

5. No more air travel!!

What can we do locally? 

Support public transport, especially more trains and more train infrastructure.  Campaign for a faster broadband infrastructure so less people have to travel to work.  Make more people aware of Peak Oil

I really am having a deep think about what car or cars to own, what investments to have, and what things are going to decline, and where the growth areas are.  Where to live relative to public transport and local schools.

The country with the greatest problem is America, which is totally oil and car dependent.  America will economically crash,unless they start to do something radical over the next 5 years. Ken pointed out that European cities have a public transport infrastructure built before the age of the car.  I wonder how China and India will be able to grow if they can't supply themselves with energy.

In the short term, the price of petrol will go up. What will this mean, over the next few years?  At what point does the cost of running a car cease to be viable?  When does the very high price of petrol begin to impact on the infrastructure and transport, as well as the local and world economy?

What's most interesting here in Australia, is what role coal is going to play in all of this.  The film didn't mention coal!!  it seems to me, that in the short-term, a vast increase in coal usage together with Five Ways to Save the World, is going to be the way forward!!

G'Day Mate - Advance Australia Fair

I'm now a Fair Dinkum Dinky-Di Aussie, as of midday today.  What next?  Down the beach for a barbie I think!  Now let's start at the very beginning;

Australians all let us rejoice, for we are young and free;

We've golden soil and wealth for toil, our home is girt by sea;

Our land abounds in nature's gifts, of beauty rich and rare;

In history's page, let every stage, Advance Australia Fair,

In joyful strains then let us sing, Advance Australia Fair.

Fair enough, true words.  But what is "girt"!!! (I hear on good authority the original word was "dirt" but they printed the letter upside down!). Australia does abound with nature's gifts....Sun, Coal, and Uranium, but not Water and Oil!!  I've joined the country/club to help resolve this slight imbalance, as the world looks to us to produce the biggest gas guzzling cars.  Kind of ironic.  But then so is naming a swimming pool after a drowned Aussie Prime Minister, without the faintest hint of humour or irony! Actually, it looks like they'd already started building the swimming pool in his honour before he drowned (or was scooped up by a Chinese submarine!)

The ceremony was nice and simple.  Introduction, Australian Citizenship Pledge, half the room "under God" and the rest can choose to not include God in their Pledge.  Go up to collect your certificate.  Sing the Anthem.  Collect Tree!  Well actually, it's a Corea Glabra twig in a little square plastic pot.  Nice touch.  Proud to be Aussie.  I picked up a kids pack for the kids, who were born Aussie.  A flag, ruler (not The Queen), posters and bookmarks, "Australians all let us rejoice".  And of course my curiosity in the demographic mix of who wants to be a new Australian.  And what a mix.  Completely across the ages, races, colours,creeds, and religion.  It looked just like in the adverts, and I felt the goodwill and the desire to make Australia an equal or better place for our kids.  Just one problem....The Aborigines didn't show up, yet again.   Ah but of course, they're already Australian, but only just, in 1967 or just before.  And that's part of the problem.  All the other races are embraced and welcomed except for the very race that was here first!

There is something seriously wrong with Australia in it's relationship to the Indigenous Australians.  A buried and ignored history of abuse.  I don't know what the answer is.  Many politicians have tried and failed.  It's all conveniently swept into the outback.  Not totally true, but when you arrive in Australia you're looking for Skippy and Aborigines, and here in Melbourne there aren't any!!  What happened?  You can live a European life in the inner suburbs without realising where you actually live.

Now I'm Aussie, I can't whinge like a Pom.  Try stopping me!  The trouble is, Aussies don't complain much.  They're happy with their lot, unless they lose at cricket, and the crunch came when Harmison was steaming in for the first ball of the First Test.  Which way would I swing....."C'mon Harmison send it up 'em."  Bloody Hell.  So I've become Aussie.  Even Aussie football was better to follow in the World Cup! 

And it's great here, you get all the perks of England.  The Queen, The Union Jack, UKTV.  And they get you to sign up to vote before the ink is dry on your Aussie Certificate.   So I'm off to compulsorily vote for a Republic.  Not sure who to have as Head of State, maybe Rolf Harris or Germaine Greer.

No More Oil

Coming Soon, a Crude ending.  The oil is running out.  Few seem to get it yet.  I'll say it again, The Oil is Running Out.  In 50 years time we will have no oil!!

You don't believe me?  Check out Peak Oil.  Check out this blog Phil Hart on things such as Peak Oil.  Check out this film, A Crude Awakening - The Oil Crash.

What will this mean?  Well, I think the problems will start well before the 50 years are up.  Petrol prices only have one way to go, and that's up up up.  What effect will this have on world economies?  Worse still, 6 of the top 10 Fortune 500 companies are Oil or Car Manufacturers.  What will they do to cling to power?

I reckon the real crap will occur over the next 20 years, until we realise that there really is going to be no more oil and change our world economy and the way we live, over to something else.  This isn't about conservation of oil, there isn't enough,  Even if we conserve, maybe we put the event off by a decade, if we'd been more frugal over the last century, then maybe we'd have an extra few decades of oil.  It's been nice whilst it lasted.

Now let's look long into the future and work backwards.  Here in Australia we have plenty of coal, uranium, and sun, but no water or oil!!  So you'd think it would make sense to start working out ways to convert the energy of coal, uranium, and sun into water and transport!!  And I don't mean nuclear powered cars!!  I mean how are we going to convert the energy of coal, uranium and sun, into how we power the batteries of our cars or some other energy medium, as well as desalinating our water or some other miracle.

And there are other fuel sources such as Ethanol, Hydrogen, and other Synthetic fuels.

I'm not too worried about what we end up with as our fuel source, just the turmoil we're going to go through before the dumb Western countries let go of the oil.  So a few things to consider;

1. Go Johnnie Go on the nuclear feasibility studies.  And make 'em quick!

2. What is the feasibility of converting coal or nuclear power into desalination plants?

3. When do we use the most energy?  When we switch on the air conditioning coz it's so hot.  So why not work on solar powered air conditioners!  Doh!!

4. Melbourne with it's electric powered tram and train system is looking good, but there will have to be a much better and longer term transport strategy with hugely more investment, and the same with the other cities in the world.

5. What will the demographics of countries look like with no oil powered cars, and especially no oil powered trucks to transport everything.  Do we start to look like Cuba, with everything apparently based on local communities?

6. How do we move away from a reliance on car manufacturing in the western economies and move to something else, or find an alternative way of powering cars pretty damn quick.  Australia would have to solve its water problem if it went for an ethanol solution, or swap uranium and coal for sugar!!

7. And finally, I think we have the current technology to be looking good in 50 years, with replacement energy for our transport needs, with one exception.....how do you power a jet airliner or a fighter plane without hydrocarbon fuel?  Will synthetic fuel, hydrogen, or something else be able to produce the same efficiency and safety of a current jet engine?

Teenager Scoots to Shop

Yippee!  Scott Adams (Dilbert) recently asked What's Your Permanent Age? What age do you think of yourself as, or like to be?  Without hesitation, my age is 15!!  All my musical references are about that time, my strong football (Man United) memories are based at that time.  My greatest sporting achievement was at that age, and of course my girl obsessions were at that age.

So it's gratifying to explain to the guy on checkout at Dick Smith today, why I'm walking around with a scooter in my hand.  "Are you riding that?"  Yep!!  I bought it for the kids (ME!) to keep up with them when they're cycling.  So I thought I'd give it a real go and scooter to Dick Smith in Carnegie, which is about a 3km round trip.

Fun Fun Fun!

We Have Change!

At the margins what separates one identical cafe from another?  Yesterday, feeling my post Landmark Advanced feeling, I thought I'd buy a Big Issue.  Went into the cafe to get some change (I guess I could have given the Big Issue guy $20!!),

"Sorry, we don't give change!"  So I walked out.  But in my post Landmark mind, I turned back and into the cafe again.  The guy wasn't there so I asked the person at the other till.  He gave me the change.  The other guy came back saw what was happening and admonished the guy who had given  me the change.  I explained to the first guy that I wanted the change to buy a copy of Big Issue.  It still didn't register with him.  I should have asked him why they don't give change.

Later on I realised that they should turn it on it's head.

WE GIVE CHANGE!

A big sign which distinguishes them from everyone else, and will probably lead to more business relative to the hassle of providing change.  They're right next to one of the busiest rail stations in Melbourne.  Massive passing traffic.  I've a good mind to back to the cafe and speak to the owner or manager about making it a key thing to offer change to people.  If people keep coming in demanding something, then isn't that an opportunity!

Funny, but Seth Godin is writing about exactly the same thing, We don't like you, go away.

Home savings virtually negligible-Australian Water

Why is it we're running out of water here in Australia, and being made to feel guilty, domestically speaking?  What is it about politicians, industry, and the media, that we're painted a story that just isn't true, about water restrictions and believing that helps.

Home savings virtually negligible

SAVING water around the house will not help solve Australia's water crisis, a water-use expert has warned.

Tram Lines and Bikes

When I first arrived in Melbourne, over 5 years ago, Elliot drove me to my first Carlton game ("The Greatest Footy team ever") who from my perspective over the last 5 years are The Worst Footy team ever.  I digress.  Another thing he said was, "Over time, you will come to detest the trams!"  This was speaking as a Melbourne driver.  And how very true that is.

When you first move to Melbourne or visit, the trams are a pleasant novelty.  As a gas guzzling driver, they are the enemy!  I digress.

What I didn't realise is that trams are the greater enemy of The Cyclist. And that includes me.  Or more to the point, Tram Lines are the greatest enemy of cyclist.

A few hours ago, near to the site of my one and only adult bike crash, and just past its 4th anniversary, 9/12/2002, I had another crash.  A big one!  Almost identical to the first crash of 4 years ago. Same road, almost same spot. Tram Lines.  This time it was at quiet high speed, coming down Glenhuntly Road, nothing behind me (except another cyclist), nothing in front of me, "Ah, I'll cross the tram lines to get to the petrol station to pump up the tyres."  I moved, the bike didn't.  Leaning to turn right my weight was committed, my bike wasn't, it was in the tram line.  Too late, I went flying, big wipe-out along the road, at speed, bouncing along the road.  Ouch!  Well actually not ouch.  It didn't hurt at all, until I noticed my knee caked in blood, my arm, my shoulder, my hip.

It's like a slow motion thing isn't it.  You're fully aware of what's happening as well.  My bike took the full force on it's side, then so did I,  right hip, knee, shoulder, and left arm which came across.  I got up almost immediately, picked the bike up and got off the road.

The cyclist behind me stopped.  My witness to the speed of my crash.  I told him I was ok.  He didn't think I was, because he saw the speed.  I assured him I was ok.  Thank you for stopping whoever you are.

And then the pain and shock set in.  Amazing isn't it.  The first 5 mins you're ok, and then you realise what's happened.  My knee was the most obvious bit, cut and bleeding, but over the hours, it's my shoulder that's really hurting.  It's amazing how well we're built to take a fall, all in the right places, most of the impact was just below my hip, on the soft bit, so nothing damaged except a big bruise.

When will I ever learn.   On tram lines, I usually slow down, jump the line, or make damn sure I twist my bike to be more at an angle to tram line, but not this time. 

Oh well, time to get back on my bike!  And I love trams, when I'm on one!

Improv Characterisation and Stalking

And first day back at Impro Melbourne for the Character Class.

Good to be back to relearn all the Impro skills and a few more, this term being Character.  We practised crossing the line on to stage and stepping in the character.  Realising that the audience will as much watch a good character as a good plot, so if we get into the character we're well on the way.

Our homework is pick a favourite character on TV and really study them.  The other one is to spot a character we see, in the city, on the tram, out and about, and notice them.  So if you see someone staring at you for a bit too long, around Melbourne this week, you'll know it's me or one of my classmates!